ERC Price Benchmark Trends Week Ending: July 15, 2016

Short-Term Price Benchmark Trends

ERC’s average national benchmark price for retail electricity this week showed no change from last week’s benchmark price of $0.0755 per kilowatt hour. There was, however, meaningful change at the state level. Prices increased in the District of Columbia (+3.20%) and Delaware (+2.26%) while prices in Texas (-1.76% and Connecticut (-1.59%) declined.

The short-to-medium term NOAA weather forecasts continue to call for warmer-than-normal temperatures across most (90%) of the country. The market, however, seems to have grown accustomed to the hot summer and factored a continuing heat wave into natural gas prices. 

The current trading range for spot Nymex natural gas contracts is between $2.80/mmbtu on the resistance end and $2.65/mmbtu on the support side. Although the measure of storage-surpluse-compared-to-historical-averages has been shrinking weekly due to a string of weak injections, natural gas prices have been unable to break through the psychologically important $3.00 level.  For now, the combination of hot weather and high cooling demand seems to be trumped by a shrinking, but still historically high, natural gas surplus.

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SOURCE: Jim Moore | Energy Manager Today